I’ve been avoiding posting for the last couple months because I promised myself the next post would be my long paper on election forensics. Finally, after much delay, here it is.
The paper is divided into two parts. The first is a regression analysis with percent voter turnout as the dependent variable and the socioeconomic variables of total popuation, voting age population, gender, urban/rural classification, municipal income classification, education, age, percent overseas Filipino workers, religion, marital status and household size as the independent variables. This test was run for all municipalities in the Philippines. Statistically significant positive relationships were found for percent voter turnout and municipal income class, education level, percent OFW, some religious groups and household size. Statistically significant negative relationships were found for percent voter turnout and urban classification and the Iglesia ni Kristo religious group. The second section held these socioeconomic variables as the independent variables, but tested percent support for gubernatorial candidates identified as “new entrants” or “reform” candidates in the 2007 elections. Except for the factor of age for Gov. Tupas of Iloilo, these tests failed to yield statistically significant results. These results indicate that socioeconomic characteristics are related to voting behavior, as there are clear relationships with voter turnout, but who certain groupd do or do not vote for is still unclear. This disconnect suggests the failure of campaigns to target voters based on social groups, and suggests that doing so may be an effective alternative to traditional campaign methods.
Also newly updated/uploaded: the revised version of “The Evolving Role of the Philippine Supreme Court” and a piece I wrote back in March, “Jun Lozada and the Political Backfire Process: Understanding and Preempting the Administration’s Actions to Further the Social Movement for Reform.” See them in the “Writings” section.